How will Ukraine win?

‘Ukraine will win,’ says Jesus? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com) But how?

By creative, unexpected, harassment which has far greater impact than imagined. Not so much through force of arms supplied by The West. More through small manoeuvres of surprise and emotional impact. A few people will dream up minor ventures which seem crazy, could well be a waste of time, but make a big impact on already demoralised Russian soldiers. Like the Tigrayans recently ridding their land of Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers.

In September it was reported ‘Russian soldiers are running away, ditching their equipment, asking to surrender.’ https://www.anneapplebaum.com/2022/09/11/its-time-to-prepare-for-a-ukrainian-victory/ Since then, Russian soldiers have been made to toughen up, keep fighting. The underlying sense among most Russians remains a desire to get out of Ukraine, without losing their lives. Russians are used to hearing and saying one thing and thinking, believing, the opposite. In Communist times everyone knew how to repeat Party propaganda, to do what they were told, but carelessly and sloppily. Putin is now trying to recrate the Communist Russian Empire and is thereby recreating the careless and sloppy obedience of most soldiers. Their hearts are not in this fight. Their capacity for killing Ukrainians is stretched to the limit. Worth continuing to pray for the demoralisation of the Russian soldiers.

Despite the reputation of the Old Testament God as blood-thirsty, the actual texts show a God working with, accommodating to, blood-thirsty people, trying to minimise the killing, encouraging them not to rely on military strength.

This God, shown more fully in and through Jesus, is being called on now to help the Ukrainians. We can expect the help He sends to be similar to that given to the Israelites of the Old Testament. and the Tigrayans of today.

In the Old Testament we read of Gideon taking a ludicrously small group of soldiers against the huge Midianite army which had invaded the land. Trumpets blown from very close, clay jars smashed, lights suddenly appearing, all terrified the Midianite soldiers. Helped by previous demoralising dreams and rumours spread by God’s Spirit. The Midianites fled. Judges 7:1-22

We read also of the Israelites being given godly information on the movements and supply lines of enemy troops. This leads to an enemy special military operation which fails because an army of angels blinds them. 2 Kings 6:8-23. The blind army is taken captive and the Israelites are told to feed them and send them home. This time, they do as they are told.

The ungrateful enemy return and besiege Samaria, the capital city.  Food runs out, the people are starving. Then the enemy army flees in unexplained God-sent, terror – 2 Kings 6:24 – 7:20

Expecting God’s surprising, death-minimising, help against an invading army is not magical, fairy story, thinking. Look at the recent invasion of the national Ethiopian and Eritrean armies of the province of Tigray. Outnumbered and outgunned, the Tigrayans drove the Ethiopian army out of their capital and out of their land. The parallels with Ukraine and Russia are notable. Including Tigray containing the ancient centre of the country’s Orthodox Faith.

The Tigrayan victory echoed Biblical victories: Welcome to Independent Tigray and New Eritrea | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com)  The Tigrayans tried to minimise killing, not targeting civilians, feeding and sending back Ethiopian soldiers, as Elisha’s Israelites had fed and sent back their Aramean enemies. Difficult when your enemy routinely attacks, abuses, rapes civilians, your neighbours, cousins, brothers and sisters.

And we Brits remember tenacious, odd, Alan Turing, who thought he could break the Nazi Enigma Code. He was deemed crazy but allowed to try. The course of the Second World War was changed and many lives saved.

(Turing’s intervention was in the tradition of Gideon and Elisha. Bomber Harris’ intervention was in the tradition of King Ahab and King Herod, the slaughterer of the innocents.)

May the Ukrainians be open to odd, out-of-the-box, little ideas. Not exact copies of the initiatives of Gideon and Elisha and the Tigrayans. Fresh, clever, apparently crazy, thinking which aims to impact the enemy while minimising bloodshed. The people who come up with these ideas may be conscious of the God and Father of Jesus leading them. Or may not. Our God can work through anyone.

May the Ukrainians be open to the Spirit of God, the Spirit of Jesus, so that they feed and release Russian prisoners of war. No retaliation nor revenge. Minimal killing, especially of civilians. Even though there is a risk that these soldiers may invade again, as they did in old Israel and new Tigray, God has that covered too.

Truce and Truth for Tigray

For the Truce to hold, the Truth needs to be told.

On Wednesday 2 November, a Truce agreement was finalised between the central government of Ethiopia, led by the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, and the leaders of Tigray, the Northern Region of Ethiopia. This Tuesday was the first day for 2 years no-one was attacked or killed.

Both parties agreed to a return to the status quo of 2 years ago, with a Transitional Justice Policy which is to include a full impartial investigation into the last 2 years. Both parties have compromised, so the truce is not welcomed by all those represented by leaders on both sides. If the leaders, especially Abiy Ahmed, abide by the agreement fully, a better future can emerge. But this will be a challenge for Abiy.

The Conflict

In November 2020 Abiy Ahmed mobilised his army to attack Tigray after the Tigrayan regional leadership held regional elections against the ruling from the Ethiopian central government. Abiy Ahmed had refused to step down after his term of office expired. Scheduled national elections were postponed due to Covid 19. The Tigrayans argued that an interim government should be set up, as agreed by all the Regions of Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed refused, insisting that he stay in charge until he is able to arrange elections. The Tigrayans announced and carried out their own regional elections. For Abiy this was a great crime, justifying a military invasion which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

Abiy and the Tigrayans had competing visions for Ethiopia. The Tigrayans had been instrumental in establishing the country as a Federal Democratic Republic. Federal first, with much autonomy to the tribal Regions. Democratic in prioritising regular fair and free elections. With this Constitution, Ethiopia had prospered remarkably.

Abiy Ahmed’s vision was for a centralised, quasi-royal country. Abiy established his own national political party, the Prosperity Party, in opposition to the existing regional, tribal, parties. Abiy set about building a strong centre in Addis Ababa, with new roads, new parks, new palaces, to which all the tribes would contribute and of which all the regions would be proud.

The Tigrayan local elections were taken by Abiy Ahmed as an affront to his vision and his central authority. His declared aim was for regime change in the region of Tigray. He would teach them the lesson that regional autonomy had gone too far. With him, authority and power was primarily in the national centre. He believed that his large national army would ensure the lesson was a short one, albeit harsh. His invasion turned instead into a brutal 2 year war.

The Truce

Now, in the Truce, Abiy Ahmed has reaffirmed Ethiopia as a Federal Democratic Republic and recognised the regionally elected leadership of Tigray, removing his designation of them as terrorists. Abiy Ahmed has gained nothing, except to remain in power. If he continues to press for his centralising vision, he will be breaching his Truce.

The borders of Tigray from 2 years ago also need to be reaffirmed. Enlisting the support of regional Amhara militia for his invasion of Tigray, Abiy allowed or encouraged Amharans to take over part of Western Tigray and to claim this fertile land as their own. Now Abiy has to oust the Amharans back to within their borders of 2 years ago. He will not be popular in Amhara.

Abiy Ahmed has also agreed to allow, facilitate, food and medical aid into Tigray. Today, the WHO announced that this is not yet happening. One of Abiy’s officials said it is happening. Both cannot be speaking the truth.

Abiy Ahmed wants the Tigrayans to disarm. In the Truce, they have agreed to disarm within 30 days, when they consider they are safe. If Abiy implements the Truce Agreement, disarmament will follow. Abiy may well, instead, push for disarmament as a precondition for implementation of the rest of the Truce. He would encounter fierce opposition.

The Truth

The Truce agrees to Transitional Justice truth telling about the last 2 years. Both parties have agreed to establish the truth and follow this with criminal prosecutions as appropriate, all an understood part of Transitional Justice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_justice

The truth about Abiy Ahmed’s flimsy excuse for starting the war.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed encouraging and fomenting vilification, demonisation, of Tigrayans, among other Ethiopians, to justify his war.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed inviting the Eritrean army to assist him in invading Tigray. The truth that, in the early weeks, Abiy repeatedly denied that the Eritreans were involved.

The truth about the rape and pillage, particularly by Eritrean troops, in Tigray. The truth about Abiy Ahmed responding by accusing the Tigrayans of atrocities.

(The dictator of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, sees a strong Tigray as an existential threat to Eritrea. About half of Eritreans speak the same language as Tigrayans. If, through a mass movement or military conflict, Tigray is expanded to include all speakers of Tigrinya, Eritrea would cease to exist. Such a change would only be a copy of what has happened in the former Yugoslavia. Afwerki has dedicated his life to the creation and existence of Eritrea, his own country. He is determined to weaken, to dominate Tigray.)

The truth about Abiy Ahmed ‘using starvation as a weapon of war against Tigray’ according to the United Nations. The truth about Abiy Ahmed sending drones to attack villages and markets.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed sending waves of human cannon fodder against the Tigrayan defences. The truth about the death toll of all sides in this war.

Without this Truth, and more, being told, the Truce cannot hold.

The Future

Will Abiy Ahmed allow this truth to be told? When it may mean that he is the first recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize to also be tried in the International Criminal Court?

Maybe Abiy Ahmed will find a way of retreating into ignominious but safe retirement.

Will Ethiopia survive as a Federal Democratic Republic? Maybe – but without a central army which can be used again against any one Region. Each Region already has its own militia, as well as its own police force. Maybe the militias will become Regional Armies joined together in a NATO-like National Alliance.

Or maybe Ethiopia will reform into an Alliance of Nations, with a common market and a single currency and an electricity company in which the nations have shares to ensure a balanced supply. See Good new future for Ethiopia? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com)

May the future of Ethiopia be decided not by war but by negotiation and compromise and agreement. May the peoples of Ethiopia learn fresh ways of loving their neighbours as they love themselves.

Roger Harper

10 November 2022

Welcome to Independent Tigray and New Eritrea

Tigrayan forces have regained control of their capital, Mekelle. The BBC reported: A statement released by what was termed the Government of the National State of Tigray praised a “stunning victory”, saying Mekelle was “now under the complete control of the Tigray Defence Forces”.

Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict: Street celebrations as rebels seize capital – BBC News

Tigray, as a region of Ethiopia, was invaded by national Ethiopian and neighbouring Eritrean troops in November last year. The invaders have now been defeated and are on their way out. Tigray is becoming an independent state. Welcome, indeed, to the new National State of Tigray.

The treatment of Tigray by the central Ethiopian Government has been appalling. Ethiopia said they wanted to eliminate the Tigrayan leadership. Tigrayans were officially vilified, with the support of many Ethiopians, including church leaders. Ethiopia, with Eritrea, went on to devastate the whole region. All Tigrayans, especially young men and women, were targets for death or rape.

The regional leaders of Amhara in Ethiopia joined in the assault. They invaded Western Tigray and have been responsible for famine there. No Ethiopian regional leaders spoke up against the central government. There was no regional call for soldiers to refuse to serve in Tigray. The words, actions and silence of Ethiopians have made it clear that they do not want Tigray to continue as part of their nation. The damage has been too great. A new country is being born.

News commentators seem to have ignored that Tigray is now an independent National State. The media has been silent about this momentous development. Maybe the possible domino effect on other Ethiopian regions and the tribal regions of many other African countries is too much to contemplate. But Tigray the National State is a reality, a consequence of the unjustified assault on Tigray the Region.

The assault was indeed unjustified. Most media writers convey the view of the Ethiopian Government that Tigrayans started the conflict by attacking national army bases within Tigray. But the Ethiopian Government had already mobilised the army on the borders of Tigray, declaring that they needed to punish Tigray for holding their own regional elections. Tigrayan leaders were faced with threatened military invasion, including attacks from army camps within Tigray. Without the mobilisation of the Ethiopian national army and the war rhetoric, there would have been no need for Tigrayans to take over the army camps. Even when the camps were taken over, the Ethiopian Government could have taken this as a warning. Tigrayans now had weapons of their own, nothing like as many as the national army, but maybe enough to make the Ethiopian Government think again. Ethiopian soldiers went into Tigray regardless. (I covered this first at Tigray – Rwanda, Bosnia, all over again? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com) )

The ‘stunning victory’ of Tigray is acknowledged widely. Over 8 months, Tigrayans formed and successfully defended a safe hilly retreat from where they raided and stole army supplies and weapons. They recruited and trained many fellow Tigrayans. Last month they withstood a final massive assault by Ethiopians and Eritreans, and made the counter-attack which has led to their victory.

The victory of Tigray has echoed Bible victories. The retreat from Mekelle was like King David retreating from Jerusalem when his son, Absalom, led a rebellion. The retreat in the safe hills was like David, earlier, hiding in the hills with his small band of fighters from the murderous intentions of the then King Saul. Tigrayan knowledge of army convoys to ambush was like Israelite knowledge of Syrian ambushes to avoid in the reign of King Jehu. Israelite knowledge came through Elisha the prophet. Tigrayan knowledge probably came through other, sophisticated, means. Prisoners of war in Tigray have not been killed but fed and sent home. Syrian prisoners of war, captured miraculously by Elisha, were not killed, as many in Israel wanted, but fed and sent home.

Tigrayans have explained their policy on prisoners of war as driven both by not having ability to feed and guard captives and by their Christian faith which does not allow them to kill captured enemy soldiers. If your enemies are hungry, feed them; if they are thirsty, give them something to drink; for by doing this you will heap burning coals on their heads.’   (Romans 12:20, Proverbs 25:21,22)

A Tigrayan feeding Ethiopian soldiers
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157448232977255&id=689332254

When Tigrayans took over the national army camps in Tigray, they kept the weapons and sent home the soldiers, including commanders. Some of these commanders returned and were captured again, to be sent home again. The exceptions were commanders who were too afraid of being executed in Ethiopia and remained as civilians in Tigrayan villages.

Tigrayans are now called to apply Christian principles to their new national life. Tigray is called to be a kind of Switzerland in Africa: small, mountainous, independent, determined not to be involved in war, self-consciously Christian, moral, known for straight, honest, dealing, and thereby prosperous. Tigray will also develop a strong cultural, artistic, life. They will influence by example, not by force.

The Tigrayan victory has not only stunned Ethiopia, but Eritrea too. The new Tigrayan National State has declared their intention to make sure that Eritrea is never able to devastate their country again. They see the Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki, as responsible and will not tolerate his brutal dictatorship continuing. Some people think this will take 2 months, some 2 weeks.

Eritrea will soon be rid of their dictator. There will be dancing in the streets of Asmara as there has been dancing in the streets of Mekelle. Welcome also to the New Eritrea! May that country be built on a better, more humane, more lasting, foundation.

Roger Harper