‘We’re all doomed’ was the background music of my teenage years. Emerging from the cocoon of childhood into the spectre of the mushroom, nuclear, cloud. MAD was certain – Mutually Assured Destruction. We had more than enough nuclear weapons to wipe all life off our planet, a few times over. We wanted to give peace a chance but knew it was far more likely that none of us would live to see 60 years old.
Now I am 66 years old and expect to live for at least 20 more years. MAD has been recognised as mad. The nuclear weapons we were assured were going to be used have never been used. The more time goes on, the more unthinkable their use is. The catastrophic predictions have all been proved wrong.
There is evidence that the current catastrophic predictions of Climate Change will also be proved wrong.
Remember the Winners
A few years ago, an agriculturalist wrote in the Christian Aid magazine about coffee growing in Ethiopia. Addressing the effect of upcoming climate change, this expert wrote that there will be losers and there will be winners. Some areas of Ethiopia will become less suitable for growing coffee. Some areas will become more suitable.
We don’t hear about the winners of climate change. Yet winners are indeed still expected. Russia sees itself as a winner. Huge areas of Siberia will no longer be permanently frozen. Agriculture will thrive on previously icy barren land. Russians are well known for being at least reluctant to join in anti-climate-change initiatives or even talks. They see themselves as winners.
Many other areas are similar. Northern Canada, Southern Argentina, Southern New Zealand, mid-level slopes of the Himalayas etc. If our climate changes as predicted, these areas will grow more food, support more people.
Also a few years ago, my farmer brother-in-law told me that French vineyard owners are buying up South-facing hillsides in Yorkshire for future vineyards. This may be a Rural Myth, but myths are specific stories which convey widely understood truth. British farmers also know that climate change will produce winners as well as losers.
We are told far too often, with far too little challenge, that climate change will make us all losers, that we will lose our planet. Too many people shout that change means disaster, global warming means extinction. This exaggeration needs to be cut down to size. We need to remember and to proclaim that there will be winners too.
Remember adaptability
Humans are the most adaptable creatures on earth, thriving in the most varied climates. We may need to adapt more and more quickly than we are currently used to. Though, as I look back on the cultural, economic, technological, change in my lifetime and the lifetime of my parents, I wonder how different it will be to adapt to climate change.
All other creatures, animal and plant, are also adaptable. If they were not, they would no longer exist, like the dinosaurs. We have been intensely reminded recently how adaptable viruses are. Covid 19 adapted very quickly to different climates, with new mutations and variants, emerging every few months. (Thank God that harmful viruses naturally mutate to less deadly versions. The lethal virus dies with its host body. Less lethal versions survive longer.) Green Parakeets from the foothills of the Himalayas, have adapted to living, in large numbers, in European cities. I have seen them in Barcelona, as well as all over London. Minks from North America have adapted to living in England. Elephants adapt to living in Northern Hemisphere zoos and wildlife parks.
Plants adapt in a similar way. Think of potatoes and tomatoes from South America, and Japanese knot weed, thriving in the UK. Near my home in Derbyshire are two conjoining Dales, Lathkil Dale and Bradford Dale, each with a stream that flows into the other. Both Dales have steep rocky sides into which horizontal mine shafts were once cut for lead. The rock hauled out was washed, in pools created by miners building weirs to hold back water. The lead ore was sent to market and the spoil was left in heaps on the valley floor. Contaminated rock and water literally spoilt the vegetation. Large patches of the valley floors were poisoned, barren.
Now, the whole of each valley floor is lush and full of life. Bradford Dale, particularly, celebrates how plants have adapted to survive and thrive on lead-rich soil. New variants have emerged suited to this unusual terrain. The whole of natures is adaptable.
People can either see and trust the adaptability of nature or ignore and discount the adaptability of nature. Some see nature as adaptable, particularly to human interaction. Some see nature as vulnerable, particularly to human interaction.
The people responsible for Lathkil Dale have fenced off a large section, to protect the ‘vulnerable’ plant and animal species. Humans are now banned from going close to the miner-made pools. Further up the Dale, without fences, there are signs to keep humans and their dogs from paddling in the stream.
The people responsible for Bradford Dale have put up no fences. Humans are welcome to walk, with their dogs, for the whole length of the Dale. Not only is paddling by dogs and people allowed, swimming is also fine. One deep pool, down from the village of Youlgreave, has signs alerting people that they swim at their own risk. So they swim. Nature thrives there too.
Lathkill Dale and Bradford Dale share the same geography, the same history, the same climate. One is deemed vulnerable, one adaptable. Humans disagree. The trumpeters of vulnerable nature should not be allowed to drown out people who sing of adaptable nature.
Remember Catastrophising
Humans have a natural tendency to expect the worst. We have the great ability to imagine what is not. Our imagination makes us creative; it also feeds our pessimism. Most people who have had a stomach pain for more than two weeks will find themselves thinking ‘What if it’s serious? What if it’s cancer? What if it’s spread already? What if there is nothing the doctors can do?’ We don’t choose to send our minds down that pessimistic track. Our minds run down that track by themselves. We are a catastrophising species.
About 20 years ago a friend’s wife was leaving Ethiopia to join him in London, travelling around the Christmas holidays. She found a remarkably cheap flight. On the day, her flight had only very few passengers. The airports were almost empty. Why? Because she left Addis Ababa in 1999 and landed in London in 2000. Catastrophising over ‘the Millennium Bug’ stopped nearly everyone from flying that night. We know now that that night was as safe as any other. Needless catastrophising.
CJD is a rare, unexplained, fatal, incurable, human disorder about which I now know much because my wife died of CJD two years ago. CJD is most known because of its variant, BSE or ‘Mad Cow Disease’ transferred to humans and of great concern in the UK for 20 years from 1986. At a conference for CJD families a Professor of Neurology showed us a slide of about 8 predictions of the spread of human BSE (‘Variant CJD’) from shortly after the peak of UK cases. All predictions showed cases continuing, decreasing before increasing again and then decreasing but remaining an ongoing health issue for a few people. Different predictions showed more or less cases. On the same slide we were shown the actual incidence of Variant CJD since the projections. Cases immediately dropped to near zero and have remained at zero or near zero. The reality has been far less serious than even the most optimistic projections. Projections by scientists were not immune to normal human catastrophising.
We had a similar experience with Asiatic Bird Flu and with Swine Flu which, we were assured at the times, were predicted to impact the world far more than they did. I remember the stern warnings issued by Church Authorities about the shared Communion Cup, which were never needed. We have experience of scientists catastrophising. We should bear this in mind as we assess current predictions about Climate Change.
The shrinking of glaciers in the Alps has been publicised as strong evidence of impending catastrophe. On a visit to Chamonix last year I learnt that in recent history the Mont Blanc glaciers had expanded considerably, leading 18th Century clergy to try to cast out the demons pushing the ice forward. Current shrinking, notable as it is, has not yet taken the glaciers back to their previous size.
Remember the effects of past human development
Uganda, which I have visited several times, and in which I am an honorary member of staff at one Cathedral, has vast stretches of Papyrus Swamps. Like the Fens of Eastern England, naturally, impassably, untameably boggy.
With modern technology, the Fens now have multiple drainage canals, turning bogs into the best vegetable growing land in Europe. This human-made change from many years ago has not had a noticeable effect on the local weather, certainly not a catastrophic effect.
With modern technology, the Papyrus Swamps could also be drained, the land turned into high grade growing land. But the Ugandans are told that this change would be irresponsible and disastrous because it would affect the climate in terrible ways. The Swamps have to remain as they are. They are forbidden to do what we English did years ago, to our benefit and with no disastrous effect on climate.
Careful responsible development of the Papyrus Swamps is definitely possible. Significant areas could be preserved with their unique flora and fauna. Thousands of trees could be planted along the canals to offset the loss of carbon capturing papyrus. Crops could be varied and rotated so as not to seriously deplete the soil. We have plenty of experience of such responsible, nature-enhancing, development as well as lessons learnt from less responsible development. We continue to learn.
Uganda is not the only country with unfarmed land. Responsible development of unfarmed land across the world will be good for people and planet. We know this from experience. Catastrophising about Climate Change means that developing countries are denied benefits enjoyed by developed countries.
Remember the effect on young people
My teenage years were blighted by the spectre of atomic MAD. Today, many teenage years are blighted by the catastrophised spectre of Climate Change. People who are too young to have lived through a good few wrong catastrophic predictions are vulnerable to despair. Instead of reassuring them, our media, even governments, terrify them. We could teach and publicise the history of catastrophic predictions. Instead we hide it from those who most need it.
Our children and grandchildren have higher levels of depression, self-harm and suicide even than my generation when young. This is evidence of widespread child abuse through the catastrophising of Climate Change.
What should we, our governments, be doing?
Although there are good reasons to believe that the impact of Climate Change will not be catastrophic, there will certainly be an impact and we need to respond to this impact.
Facilitate Migration.
A friend of mine who works in helping people prepare for adverse effects of Climate Change, who has attended numerous COP Conferences, contributing to a few, agrees that the greatest need will be to facilitate migration.
Losers will need to move to winning areas. Humans have long been migraters. From before continents formed, through Ice Ages, after drought, famine, war, people have moved considerable distances, adapting to different environments. As well as being adaptable, humans are the most mobile creatures, trekking or sailing huge distances. Some will have migrated willingly, keen for a new life in a new setting. Many will have migrated reluctantly, feeling wrenched from one homeland to another that cannot be the same.
My aunt in my father’s, Jewish, side of my family, migrated from Nazi Germany to Palestine, which became Israel, to Chicago, to San Diego, California, and, lastly to Reno, Nevada. As we gathered in Reno for her 90th birthday, she told me, bright and alert as ever, that the USA had never felt like home. She was glad, though, that it was truly home to her children and grandchildren. She had moved in the tradition of Sarah who trekked across the Middle East with her husband Abraham, and of Rebecca, who trekked, a little less, to be joined with her husband, Isaac, and of Rachel, who trekked the same route as Rebecca with her husband, Jacob.
In my mother’s side of my family, Grandfather Stanislaus migrated from the West of Ireland to Nottingham, and three of his grandchildren migrated from the UK to South Africa.
My family is not unusual. We humans have always migrated. Now, though, we have more barriers to migration than ever. National boundaries block migration. Majorities in many countries for whom ‘love your neighbour as you love yourself’ cannot apply to foreigners, block migration.
We need concerted international agreements to facilitate necessary migration. People in Bangladesh may well have to move to the slopes of the Himalayas. People on some Pacific Islands may well have to move, for instance to the Falkland Islands, or to the coast of Southern Alaska, when warmer. We need to explain the necessity and benefits of migration as widely as we can, countering the fears of immigrants. Richer countries who have contributed most to Climate Change will need to fund migration from vulnerable poorer countries. New developments on warmed-up land will create opportunities for new human communities, bringing the best of their cultures with them to a new environment while leaving the worst.
We need concerted international agreements to facilitate necessary animal and plant migration. Animals may well naturally migrate and corridors will be needed for them. Colonies of animals and plants can be established in warmed-up areas. People with more biological knowledge than I will be able to ensure survival for much of nature.
Support People in Extreme Weather Events
We need more concerted international ability to respond to adverse weather events, droughts and floods. Any time of change is a time of upheaval. We are experiencing greater climate upheaval and expect this to continue for a while. People, and animals, need and will need to be rescued and restored.
Thank God we are not bad at this already. The need to be Global Good Samaritans has wide acceptance, sometimes grudging. Very few people think the Red Cross a useless organisation. We need to re-commit heart-moved finance to being ready to respond to people at the sharpest end of Climate Change.
Stop Catastrophising
Climate change is real. Our planet is warming up. The change is caused, mostly, by us burning fossil fuels. Change means upheaval, uncertainty, fear. Change also means opportunity, invention, hope. To come through change, we need to trust and develop our ability to adapt. We need also to hold together, to look after each other, to go against the selfish drive to protect only ourselves and our corner. We are right to be concerned about climate change. We are wrong to allow that concern to mushroom into terror which paralyses us, pushes us to desperate, unwise, measures, and saps hope out of our children and grandchildren.