Climate Change: Stop Catastrophising

‘We’re all doomed’ was the background music of my teenage years. Emerging from the cocoon of childhood into the spectre of the mushroom, nuclear, cloud. MAD was certain – Mutually Assured Destruction. We had more than enough nuclear weapons to wipe all life off our planet, a few times over. We wanted to give peace a chance but knew it was far more likely that none of us would live to see 60 years old.

Now I am 66 years old and expect to live for at least 20 more years. MAD has been recognised as mad. The nuclear weapons we were assured were going to be used have never been used. The more time goes on, the more unthinkable their use is. The catastrophic predictions have all been proved wrong.

There is evidence that the current catastrophic predictions of Climate Change will also be proved wrong.

Remember the Winners

A few years ago, an agriculturalist wrote in the Christian Aid magazine about coffee growing in Ethiopia. Addressing the effect of upcoming climate change, this expert wrote that there will be losers and there will be winners. Some areas of Ethiopia will become less suitable for growing coffee. Some areas will become more suitable.

We don’t hear about the winners of climate change. Yet winners are indeed still expected. Russia sees itself as a winner. Huge areas of Siberia will no longer be permanently frozen. Agriculture will thrive on previously icy barren land. Russians are well known for being at least reluctant to join in anti-climate-change initiatives or even talks. They see themselves as winners.

Many other areas are similar. Northern Canada, Southern Argentina, Southern New Zealand, mid-level slopes of the Himalayas etc. If our climate changes as predicted, these areas will grow more food, support more people.

Also a few years ago, my farmer brother-in-law told me that French vineyard owners are buying up South-facing hillsides in Yorkshire for future vineyards. This may be a Rural Myth, but myths are specific stories which convey widely understood truth. British farmers also know that climate change will produce winners as well as losers.

We are told far too often, with far too little challenge, that climate change will make us all losers, that we will lose our planet. Too many people shout that change means disaster, global warming means extinction. This exaggeration needs to be cut down to size. We need to remember and to proclaim that there will be winners too.

Remember adaptability

Humans are the most adaptable creatures on earth, thriving in the most varied climates. We may need to adapt more and more quickly than we are currently used to. Though, as I look back on the cultural, economic, technological, change in my lifetime and the lifetime of my parents, I wonder how different it will be to adapt to climate change.

All other creatures, animal and plant, are also adaptable. If they were not, they would no longer exist, like the dinosaurs. We have been intensely reminded recently how adaptable viruses are. Covid 19 adapted very quickly to different climates, with new mutations and variants, emerging every few months. (Thank God that harmful viruses naturally mutate to less deadly versions. The lethal virus dies with its host body. Less lethal versions survive longer.) Green Parakeets from the foothills of the Himalayas, have adapted to living, in large numbers, in European cities. I have seen them in Barcelona, as well as all over London. Minks from North America have adapted to living in England. Elephants adapt to living in Northern Hemisphere zoos and wildlife parks.  

Plants adapt in a similar way. Think of potatoes and tomatoes from South America, and Japanese knot weed, thriving in the UK. Near my home in Derbyshire are two conjoining Dales, Lathkil Dale and Bradford Dale, each with a stream that flows into the other. Both Dales have steep rocky sides into which horizontal mine shafts were once cut for lead. The rock hauled out was washed, in pools created by miners building weirs to hold back water. The lead ore was sent to market and the spoil was left in heaps on the valley floor. Contaminated rock and water literally spoilt the vegetation. Large patches of the valley floors were poisoned, barren.

Now, the whole of each valley floor is lush and full of life. Bradford Dale, particularly, celebrates how plants have adapted to survive and thrive on lead-rich soil. New variants have emerged suited to this unusual terrain. The whole of natures is adaptable.

People can either see and trust the adaptability of nature or ignore and discount the adaptability of nature. Some see nature as adaptable, particularly to human interaction. Some see nature as vulnerable, particularly to human interaction.

The people responsible for Lathkil Dale have fenced off a large section, to protect the ‘vulnerable’ plant and animal species. Humans are now banned from going close to the miner-made pools. Further up the Dale, without fences, there are signs to keep humans and their dogs from paddling in the stream.

The people responsible for Bradford Dale have put up no fences. Humans are welcome to walk, with their dogs, for the whole length of the Dale. Not only is paddling by dogs and people allowed, swimming is also fine. One deep pool, down from the village of Youlgreave, has signs alerting people that they swim at their own risk. So they swim. Nature thrives there too.

Lathkill Dale and Bradford Dale share the same geography, the same history, the same climate. One is deemed vulnerable, one adaptable. Humans disagree. The trumpeters of vulnerable nature should not be allowed to drown out people who sing of adaptable nature.

Remember Catastrophising

Humans have a natural tendency to expect the worst. We have the great ability to imagine what is not. Our imagination makes us creative; it also feeds our pessimism. Most people who have had a stomach pain for more than two weeks will find themselves thinking ‘What if it’s serious? What if it’s cancer? What if it’s spread already? What if there is nothing the doctors can do?’ We don’t choose to send our minds down that pessimistic track. Our minds run down that track by themselves. We are a catastrophising species.

About 20 years ago a friend’s wife was leaving Ethiopia to join him in London, travelling around the Christmas holidays. She found a remarkably cheap flight. On the day, her flight had only very few passengers. The airports were almost empty. Why? Because she left Addis Ababa in 1999 and landed in London in 2000. Catastrophising over ‘the Millennium Bug’ stopped nearly everyone from flying that night. We know now that that night was as safe as any other. Needless catastrophising.

CJD is a rare, unexplained, fatal, incurable, human disorder about which I now know much because my wife died of CJD two years ago. CJD is most known because of its variant, BSE or ‘Mad Cow Disease’ transferred to humans and of great concern in the UK for 20 years from 1986. At a conference for CJD families a Professor of Neurology showed us a slide of about 8 predictions of the spread of human BSE (‘Variant CJD’) from shortly after the peak of UK cases. All predictions showed cases continuing, decreasing before increasing again and then decreasing but remaining an ongoing health issue for a few people. Different predictions showed more or less cases. On the same slide we were shown the actual incidence of Variant CJD since the projections. Cases immediately dropped to near zero and have remained at zero or near zero. The reality has been far less serious than even the most optimistic projections. Projections by scientists were not immune to normal human catastrophising.

We had a similar experience with Asiatic Bird Flu and with Swine Flu which, we were assured at the times, were predicted to impact the world far more than they did. I remember the stern warnings issued by Church Authorities about the shared Communion Cup, which were never needed. We have experience of scientists catastrophising. We should bear this in mind as we assess current predictions about Climate Change.

The shrinking of glaciers in the Alps has been publicised as strong evidence of impending catastrophe. On a visit to Chamonix last year I learnt that in recent history the Mont Blanc glaciers had expanded considerably, leading 18^th Century clergy to try to cast out the demons pushing the ice forward. Current shrinking, notable as it is, has not yet taken the glaciers back to their previous size.

Remember the effects of past human development

Uganda, which I have visited several times, and in which I am an honorary member of staff at one Cathedral, has vast stretches of Papyrus Swamps. Like the Fens of Eastern England, naturally, impassably, untameably boggy.

With modern technology, the Fens now have multiple drainage canals, turning bogs into the best vegetable growing land in Europe. This human-made change from many years ago has not had a noticeable effect on the local weather, certainly not a catastrophic effect.

With modern technology, the Papyrus Swamps could also be drained, the land turned into high grade growing land. But the Ugandans are told that this change would be irresponsible and disastrous because it would affect the climate in terrible ways. The Swamps have to remain as they are. They are forbidden to do what we English did years ago, to our benefit and with no disastrous effect on climate.

Careful responsible development of the Papyrus Swamps is definitely possible. Significant areas could be preserved with their unique flora and fauna. Thousands of trees could be planted along the canals to offset the loss of carbon capturing papyrus. Crops could be varied and rotated so as not to seriously deplete the soil. We have plenty of experience of such responsible, nature-enhancing, development as well as lessons learnt from less responsible development. We continue to learn.

Uganda is not the only country with unfarmed land. Responsible development of unfarmed land across the world will be good for people and planet. We know this from experience. Catastrophising about Climate Change means that developing countries are denied benefits enjoyed by developed countries.

Remember the effect on young people

My teenage years were blighted by the spectre of atomic MAD. Today, many teenage years are blighted by the catastrophised spectre of Climate Change. People who are too young to have lived through a good few wrong catastrophic predictions are vulnerable to despair. Instead of reassuring them, our media, even governments, terrify them. We could teach and publicise the history of catastrophic predictions. Instead we hide it from those who most need it.

Our children and grandchildren have higher levels of depression, self-harm and suicide even than my generation when young. This is evidence of widespread child abuse through the catastrophising of Climate Change.

What should we, our governments, be doing?

Although there are good reasons to believe that the impact of Climate Change will not be catastrophic, there will certainly be an impact and we need to respond to this impact.

Facilitate Migration.

A friend of mine who works in helping people prepare for adverse effects of Climate Change, who has attended numerous COP Conferences, contributing to a few, agrees that the greatest need will be to facilitate migration.

Losers will need to move to winning areas. Humans have long been migraters. From before continents formed, through Ice Ages, after drought, famine, war, people have moved considerable distances, adapting to different environments. As well as being adaptable, humans are the most mobile creatures, trekking or sailing huge distances. Some will have migrated willingly, keen for a new life in a new setting. Many will have migrated reluctantly, feeling wrenched from one homeland to another that cannot be the same.

My aunt in my father’s, Jewish, side of my family, migrated from Nazi Germany to Palestine, which became Israel, to Chicago, to San Diego, California, and, lastly to Reno, Nevada. As we gathered in Reno for her 90^th birthday, she told me, bright and alert as ever, that the USA had never felt like home. She was glad, though, that it was truly home to her children and grandchildren. She had moved in the tradition of Sarah who trekked across the Middle East with her husband Abraham, and of Rebecca, who trekked, a little less, to be joined with her husband, Isaac, and of Rachel, who trekked the same route as Rebecca with her husband, Jacob.

In my mother’s side of my family, Grandfather Stanislaus migrated from the West of Ireland to Nottingham, and three of his grandchildren migrated from the UK to South Africa.

My family is not unusual. We humans have always migrated. Now, though, we have more barriers to migration than ever. National boundaries block migration. Majorities in many countries for whom ‘love your neighbour as you love yourself’ cannot apply to foreigners, block migration.

We need concerted international agreements to facilitate necessary migration. People in Bangladesh may well have to move to the slopes of the Himalayas. People on some Pacific Islands may well have to move, for instance to the Falkland Islands, or to the coast of Southern Alaska, when warmer. We need to explain the necessity and benefits of migration as widely as we can, countering the fears of immigrants. Richer countries who have contributed most to Climate Change will need to fund migration from vulnerable poorer countries. New developments on warmed-up land will create opportunities for new human communities, bringing the best of their cultures with them to a new environment while leaving the worst.

We need concerted international agreements to facilitate necessary animal and plant migration. Animals may well naturally migrate and corridors will be needed for them. Colonies of animals and plants can be established in warmed-up areas. People with more biological knowledge than I will be able to ensure survival for much of nature.

Support People in Extreme Weather Events

We need more concerted international ability to respond to adverse weather events, droughts and floods. Any time of change is a time of upheaval. We are experiencing greater climate upheaval and expect this to continue for a while. People, and animals, need and will need to be rescued and restored.

Thank God we are not bad at this already. The need to be Global Good Samaritans has wide acceptance, sometimes grudging. Very few people think the Red Cross a useless organisation. We need to re-commit heart-moved finance to being ready to respond to people at the sharpest end of Climate Change.

Stop Catastrophising

Climate change is real. Our planet is warming up. The change is caused, mostly, by us burning fossil fuels. Change means upheaval, uncertainty, fear. Change also means opportunity, invention, hope. To come through change, we need to trust and develop our ability to adapt. We need also to hold together, to look after each other, to go against the selfish drive to protect only ourselves and our corner. We are right to be concerned about climate change. We are wrong to allow that concern to mushroom into terror which paralyses us, pushes us to desperate, unwise, measures, and saps hope out of our children and grandchildren.

How will Ukraine win?

‘Ukraine will win,’ says Jesus? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com) But how?

By creative, unexpected, harassment which has far greater impact than imagined. Not so much through force of arms supplied by The West. More through small manoeuvres of surprise and emotional impact. A few people will dream up minor ventures which seem crazy, could well be a waste of time, but make a big impact on already demoralised Russian soldiers. Like the Tigrayans recently ridding their land of Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers.

In September it was reported ‘Russian soldiers are running away, ditching their equipment, asking to surrender.’ https://www.anneapplebaum.com/2022/09/11/its-time-to-prepare-for-a-ukrainian-victory/ Since then, Russian soldiers have been made to toughen up, keep fighting. The underlying sense among most Russians remains a desire to get out of Ukraine, without losing their lives. Russians are used to hearing and saying one thing and thinking, believing, the opposite. In Communist times everyone knew how to repeat Party propaganda, to do what they were told, but carelessly and sloppily. Putin is now trying to recrate the Communist Russian Empire and is thereby recreating the careless and sloppy obedience of most soldiers. Their hearts are not in this fight. Their capacity for killing Ukrainians is stretched to the limit. Worth continuing to pray for the demoralisation of the Russian soldiers.

Despite the reputation of the Old Testament God as blood-thirsty, the actual texts show a God working with, accommodating to, blood-thirsty people, trying to minimise the killing, encouraging them not to rely on military strength.

This God, shown more fully in and through Jesus, is being called on now to help the Ukrainians. We can expect the help He sends to be similar to that given to the Israelites of the Old Testament. and the Tigrayans of today.

In the Old Testament we read of Gideon taking a ludicrously small group of soldiers against the huge Midianite army which had invaded the land. Trumpets blown from very close, clay jars smashed, lights suddenly appearing, all terrified the Midianite soldiers. Helped by previous demoralising dreams and rumours spread by God’s Spirit. The Midianites fled. Judges 7:1-22

We read also of the Israelites being given godly information on the movements and supply lines of enemy troops. This leads to an enemy special military operation which fails because an army of angels blinds them. 2 Kings 6:8-23. The blind army is taken captive and the Israelites are told to feed them and send them home. This time, they do as they are told.

The ungrateful enemy return and besiege Samaria, the capital city.  Food runs out, the people are starving. Then the enemy army flees in unexplained God-sent, terror – 2 Kings 6:24 – 7:20

Expecting God’s surprising, death-minimising, help against an invading army is not magical, fairy story, thinking. Look at the recent invasion of the national Ethiopian and Eritrean armies of the province of Tigray. Outnumbered and outgunned, the Tigrayans drove the Ethiopian army out of their capital and out of their land. The parallels with Ukraine and Russia are notable. Including Tigray containing the ancient centre of the country’s Orthodox Faith.

The Tigrayan victory echoed Biblical victories: Welcome to Independent Tigray and New Eritrea | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com)  The Tigrayans tried to minimise killing, not targeting civilians, feeding and sending back Ethiopian soldiers, as Elisha’s Israelites had fed and sent back their Aramean enemies. Difficult when your enemy routinely attacks, abuses, rapes civilians, your neighbours, cousins, brothers and sisters.

And we Brits remember tenacious, odd, Alan Turing, who thought he could break the Nazi Enigma Code. He was deemed crazy but allowed to try. The course of the Second World War was changed and many lives saved.

(Turing’s intervention was in the tradition of Gideon and Elisha. Bomber Harris’ intervention was in the tradition of King Ahab and King Herod, the slaughterer of the innocents.)

May the Ukrainians be open to odd, out-of-the-box, little ideas. Not exact copies of the initiatives of Gideon and Elisha and the Tigrayans. Fresh, clever, apparently crazy, thinking which aims to impact the enemy while minimising bloodshed. The people who come up with these ideas may be conscious of the God and Father of Jesus leading them. Or may not. Our God can work through anyone.

May the Ukrainians be open to the Spirit of God, the Spirit of Jesus, so that they feed and release Russian prisoners of war. No retaliation nor revenge. Minimal killing, especially of civilians. Even though there is a risk that these soldiers may invade again, as they did in old Israel and new Tigray, God has that covered too.

Truce and Truth for Tigray

For the Truce to hold, the Truth needs to be told.

On Wednesday 2 November, a Truce agreement was finalised between the central government of Ethiopia, led by the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, and the leaders of Tigray, the Northern Region of Ethiopia. This Tuesday was the first day for 2 years no-one was attacked or killed.

Both parties agreed to a return to the status quo of 2 years ago, with a Transitional Justice Policy which is to include a full impartial investigation into the last 2 years. Both parties have compromised, so the truce is not welcomed by all those represented by leaders on both sides. If the leaders, especially Abiy Ahmed, abide by the agreement fully, a better future can emerge. But this will be a challenge for Abiy.

The Conflict

In November 2020 Abiy Ahmed mobilised his army to attack Tigray after the Tigrayan regional leadership held regional elections against the ruling from the Ethiopian central government. Abiy Ahmed had refused to step down after his term of office expired. Scheduled national elections were postponed due to Covid 19. The Tigrayans argued that an interim government should be set up, as agreed by all the Regions of Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed refused, insisting that he stay in charge until he is able to arrange elections. The Tigrayans announced and carried out their own regional elections. For Abiy this was a great crime, justifying a military invasion which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

Abiy and the Tigrayans had competing visions for Ethiopia. The Tigrayans had been instrumental in establishing the country as a Federal Democratic Republic. Federal first, with much autonomy to the tribal Regions. Democratic in prioritising regular fair and free elections. With this Constitution, Ethiopia had prospered remarkably.

Abiy Ahmed’s vision was for a centralised, quasi-royal country. Abiy established his own national political party, the Prosperity Party, in opposition to the existing regional, tribal, parties. Abiy set about building a strong centre in Addis Ababa, with new roads, new parks, new palaces, to which all the tribes would contribute and of which all the regions would be proud.

The Tigrayan local elections were taken by Abiy Ahmed as an affront to his vision and his central authority. His declared aim was for regime change in the region of Tigray. He would teach them the lesson that regional autonomy had gone too far. With him, authority and power was primarily in the national centre. He believed that his large national army would ensure the lesson was a short one, albeit harsh. His invasion turned instead into a brutal 2 year war.

The Truce

Now, in the Truce, Abiy Ahmed has reaffirmed Ethiopia as a Federal Democratic Republic and recognised the regionally elected leadership of Tigray, removing his designation of them as terrorists. Abiy Ahmed has gained nothing, except to remain in power. If he continues to press for his centralising vision, he will be breaching his Truce.

The borders of Tigray from 2 years ago also need to be reaffirmed. Enlisting the support of regional Amhara militia for his invasion of Tigray, Abiy allowed or encouraged Amharans to take over part of Western Tigray and to claim this fertile land as their own. Now Abiy has to oust the Amharans back to within their borders of 2 years ago. He will not be popular in Amhara.

Abiy Ahmed has also agreed to allow, facilitate, food and medical aid into Tigray. Today, the WHO announced that this is not yet happening. One of Abiy’s officials said it is happening. Both cannot be speaking the truth.

Abiy Ahmed wants the Tigrayans to disarm. In the Truce, they have agreed to disarm within 30 days, when they consider they are safe. If Abiy implements the Truce Agreement, disarmament will follow. Abiy may well, instead, push for disarmament as a precondition for implementation of the rest of the Truce. He would encounter fierce opposition.

The Truth

The Truce agrees to Transitional Justice truth telling about the last 2 years. Both parties have agreed to establish the truth and follow this with criminal prosecutions as appropriate, all an understood part of Transitional Justice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_justice

The truth about Abiy Ahmed’s flimsy excuse for starting the war.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed encouraging and fomenting vilification, demonisation, of Tigrayans, among other Ethiopians, to justify his war.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed inviting the Eritrean army to assist him in invading Tigray. The truth that, in the early weeks, Abiy repeatedly denied that the Eritreans were involved.

The truth about the rape and pillage, particularly by Eritrean troops, in Tigray. The truth about Abiy Ahmed responding by accusing the Tigrayans of atrocities.

(The dictator of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, sees a strong Tigray as an existential threat to Eritrea. About half of Eritreans speak the same language as Tigrayans. If, through a mass movement or military conflict, Tigray is expanded to include all speakers of Tigrinya, Eritrea would cease to exist. Such a change would only be a copy of what has happened in the former Yugoslavia. Afwerki has dedicated his life to the creation and existence of Eritrea, his own country. He is determined to weaken, to dominate Tigray.)

The truth about Abiy Ahmed ‘using starvation as a weapon of war against Tigray’ according to the United Nations. The truth about Abiy Ahmed sending drones to attack villages and markets.

The truth about Abiy Ahmed sending waves of human cannon fodder against the Tigrayan defences. The truth about the death toll of all sides in this war.

Without this Truth, and more, being told, the Truce cannot hold.

The Future

Will Abiy Ahmed allow this truth to be told? When it may mean that he is the first recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize to also be tried in the International Criminal Court?

Maybe Abiy Ahmed will find a way of retreating into ignominious but safe retirement.

Will Ethiopia survive as a Federal Democratic Republic? Maybe – but without a central army which can be used again against any one Region. Each Region already has its own militia, as well as its own police force. Maybe the militias will become Regional Armies joined together in a NATO-like National Alliance.

Or maybe Ethiopia will reform into an Alliance of Nations, with a common market and a single currency and an electricity company in which the nations have shares to ensure a balanced supply. See Good new future for Ethiopia? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com)

May the future of Ethiopia be decided not by war but by negotiation and compromise and agreement. May the peoples of Ethiopia learn fresh ways of loving their neighbours as they love themselves.

Roger Harper

10 November 2022

Good new future for Ethiopia?

The current Ethiopian Government’s days are numbered. The Government is calling on all civilians to defend them against the Tigrayan forces marching inexorably to Addis Ababa. These Tigrayans are intent on removing the Government and, in particular, the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed.

Abiy Ahmed instigated the recent devastation of Tigray by his own soldiers and those of Eritrea. Tigray – Rwanda, Bosnia, all over again? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com) Abiy Ahmed continues to maintain an aid blockade of Tigray, deliberately starving thousands of his own citizens. Abiy Ahmed is now sending drones to attack villages in Ethiopia where people have not resisted the advancing Tigrayan forces. Abiy Ahmed is the target of these forces, not the people of Ethiopia, nor of Addis Ababa.

Abiy Ahmed has drained national finances to buy rocket launchers from Russia and attack drones from Turkey and the UAE. Abiy Ahmed knows that his army has been routed and their weapons are now carried by the Tigrayans. In desperation he calls on his untrained civilians to protect him, acknowledging that his own army is too weak.

The BBC call the Tigrayan forces ‘rebels,’ following Abiy Ahmed. On Wednesday the BBC mentioned in passing: ‘The rebels earlier this week said that they had taken control of Shewa Robit, a town about 225km (140 miles) north-east of Addis Ababa. There is no independent confirmation of the claim.’

Ethiopia’s Haile Gebrselassie and Feyisa Lilesa ready to join Tigray war – BBC News

The BBC fail to mention that every previous Tigrayan announcement has later been proved true. The BBC gave much more space to the announcement of the Government of Ethiopia that 2 famous athletes are ready to join the war front. More telling, though, was the BBC map, showing that in 10 days the Tigrayans have halved the distance to Addis Ababa. The Tigrayan advance is picking up pace.

The final battle is expected to be for control of the town of Debre Berhan, considerably closer to Addis. Credible reports inform of gunfire already around the town and Ethiopian artillery stationed in front of the main hospital. Debre Berhan is the last mountainous stronghold before the road to Addis crosses the final plain. The chances of Debre Berhan halting the advance of the, now, greatly superior, Tigrayan forces, as several other Ethiopian towns have failed to do, are miniscule.

The Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has said that he will join the front line against the Tigrayan forces. His claim is as incredible as his other statements, including that this war was over a year ago. He would be very foolish to make himself a target. (Though a bullet in his head would end the war immediately.)

30 years ago, a similar Tigrayan force was fighting to Addis Ababa. The then dictator, Haile Mariam Mengistu, announced that he would join the war front, but first he needed to fly to an army camp for training. His plane took him from Ethiopia to Zimbabwe where he lived on in asylum.

30 years ago, the Tigrayans took control of Addis Ababa, quickly ensuring no looting nor revenge killing, and setting the foundations for Ethiopia to grow prosperous as a ‘Federal Democratic Republic.’ Abiy Ahmed’s ambition to transform Ethiopia into a unified State presided over by himself led to his invasion of Tigray, to the current war, to his imminent defeat.

Today’s Tigrayans are led by key people from 30 years ago. In every town they have ‘captured’ (or ‘liberated’) they have quickly repaired broken infrastructure and re-opened local hospitals, often with Tigrayan staff. In Addis Ababa they will do the same. No mayhem but moral stability. Western Governments, however, seems to have no knowledge of 30 years ago and, believing the propaganda vilification of Tigrayans by the Ethiopian Government, have told their nationals to flee for their safety.

Western Governments are also panicking about the future of Ethiopia. They know change is coming and they see only disaster – a violently fragmented country causing violent fragmentation far and wide. Much more likely is a future similar to 30 years ago, a new order to bring new prosperity.

A return to the ‘Federal Democratic Republic’ is highly unlikely, given the treatment of Tigrayans by other regions in Ethiopia. Tigray needs to be independent. Welcome to Independent Tigray and New Eritrea | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com) Never again will there be a national Ethiopian Army which can be used against one region of the country.

Ethiopia has an opportunity for creative thinking, drawing on the experience of other, multi-regional, multi- ethnic groupings, from Switzerland and Malaysia to the European Union. The EU was formed from the determination for European peoples never to fight each other again. The same determination in Ethiopia could lead to similar new bonding.

A new ‘Ethiopian Alliance of Nations’ could emerge. Each region becomes independent, within a single market, maybe even sharing a single currency, and interdependent utilities. As with the United Kingdom, some sports see various National teams, some the Alliance team. The Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam proves to be a key part of the rebirth of a fresh kind of Ethiopia, a fresh model to inspire other regions and nations and peoples. Amen?

Roger Harper

PS The facts on the ground in Ethiopia have changed remarkably. The Tigrayan forces have withdrawn to Tigray. Why?

1. So Tigrayans don’t have to fight, kill, Ethiopian civilians. Abiy Ahmed remains the target of the Tigrayans, not the people of Ethiopia.

The Tigrayans have fought fiercely against the Ethiopian Army which invaded and devastated Tigray, as commanded by Abiy Ahmed. As they advanced into Ethiopia, the Tigrayans avoided fighting in large towns and cities in order to minimise civilian casualties. They brought medical care to all civilians, and former soldiers. They paid for, not stealing, the food of locals. They refused to make Ethiopian land unproductive as Abiy Ahmed had instructed his army to make Tigrayan land unproductive. Civilians were not their target.

Abiy Ahmed’s army was defeated. He responded by recruiting civilians. A great propaganda campaign urged ordinary Ethiopians, especially in Amhara, to rush to the defence of their country. Some Amharans, later captured by Tigrayans, explained that they had been told that the Egyptians were invading their land. They were bemused to fight themselves fighting Tigrayans. Abiy Ahmed managed to recruit thousands of civilians, with little or no military training and rudimentary weapons. He ordered these civilians to overwhelm the Tigrayans by their numbers alone, like a First World War General ordering fresh recruits to march in waves against enemy machine guns. The effect was the same. Thousands died.

The Tigrayans could not continue to fight civilians. They went home.

2. America and the EU seem to have promised the Tigrayans that they will seriously investigate what Abiy Ahmed’s troops did in Tigray, and have done since. Announcements of such investigations swiftly followed the Tigrayan withdrawal. Surely no coincidence.

The Tigrayans are confident that independent investigations will produce evidence which demonstrates the need for Abiy Ahmed, and his partner Isaias Afwerki, President of Eritrea, to be tried by the International Criminal Court. Abiy Ahmed has decried these investigations as unwarranted interference. He does not want such investigation.

Rather than march on Addis Ababa, the Tigrayans have returned home. The quick military removal of Abiy Ahmed has been postponed for a longer international investigation. The outcome will be the same. Abiy Ahmed will have to go and Ethiopia will have a good new future.

Welcome to Independent Tigray and New Eritrea

Tigrayan forces have regained control of their capital, Mekelle. The BBC reported: A statement released by what was termed the Government of the National State of Tigray praised a “stunning victory”, saying Mekelle was “now under the complete control of the Tigray Defence Forces”.

Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict: Street celebrations as rebels seize capital – BBC News

Tigray, as a region of Ethiopia, was invaded by national Ethiopian and neighbouring Eritrean troops in November last year. The invaders have now been defeated and are on their way out. Tigray is becoming an independent state. Welcome, indeed, to the new National State of Tigray.

The treatment of Tigray by the central Ethiopian Government has been appalling. Ethiopia said they wanted to eliminate the Tigrayan leadership. Tigrayans were officially vilified, with the support of many Ethiopians, including church leaders. Ethiopia, with Eritrea, went on to devastate the whole region. All Tigrayans, especially young men and women, were targets for death or rape.

The regional leaders of Amhara in Ethiopia joined in the assault. They invaded Western Tigray and have been responsible for famine there. No Ethiopian regional leaders spoke up against the central government. There was no regional call for soldiers to refuse to serve in Tigray. The words, actions and silence of Ethiopians have made it clear that they do not want Tigray to continue as part of their nation. The damage has been too great. A new country is being born.

News commentators seem to have ignored that Tigray is now an independent National State. The media has been silent about this momentous development. Maybe the possible domino effect on other Ethiopian regions and the tribal regions of many other African countries is too much to contemplate. But Tigray the National State is a reality, a consequence of the unjustified assault on Tigray the Region.

The assault was indeed unjustified. Most media writers convey the view of the Ethiopian Government that Tigrayans started the conflict by attacking national army bases within Tigray. But the Ethiopian Government had already mobilised the army on the borders of Tigray, declaring that they needed to punish Tigray for holding their own regional elections. Tigrayan leaders were faced with threatened military invasion, including attacks from army camps within Tigray. Without the mobilisation of the Ethiopian national army and the war rhetoric, there would have been no need for Tigrayans to take over the army camps. Even when the camps were taken over, the Ethiopian Government could have taken this as a warning. Tigrayans now had weapons of their own, nothing like as many as the national army, but maybe enough to make the Ethiopian Government think again. Ethiopian soldiers went into Tigray regardless. (I covered this first at Tigray – Rwanda, Bosnia, all over again? | Rogerharper’s Blog (wordpress.com) )

The ‘stunning victory’ of Tigray is acknowledged widely. Over 8 months, Tigrayans formed and successfully defended a safe hilly retreat from where they raided and stole army supplies and weapons. They recruited and trained many fellow Tigrayans. Last month they withstood a final massive assault by Ethiopians and Eritreans, and made the counter-attack which has led to their victory.

The victory of Tigray has echoed Bible victories. The retreat from Mekelle was like King David retreating from Jerusalem when his son, Absalom, led a rebellion. The retreat in the safe hills was like David, earlier, hiding in the hills with his small band of fighters from the murderous intentions of the then King Saul. Tigrayan knowledge of army convoys to ambush was like Israelite knowledge of Syrian ambushes to avoid in the reign of King Jehu. Israelite knowledge came through Elisha the prophet. Tigrayan knowledge probably came through other, sophisticated, means. Prisoners of war in Tigray have not been killed but fed and sent home. Syrian prisoners of war, captured miraculously by Elisha, were not killed, as many in Israel wanted, but fed and sent home.

Tigrayans have explained their policy on prisoners of war as driven both by not having ability to feed and guard captives and by their Christian faith which does not allow them to kill captured enemy soldiers. If your enemies are hungry, feed them; if they are thirsty, give them something to drink; for by doing this you will heap burning coals on their heads.’   (Romans 12:20, Proverbs 25:21,22)

A Tigrayan feeding Ethiopian soldiers
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157448232977255&id=689332254

When Tigrayans took over the national army camps in Tigray, they kept the weapons and sent home the soldiers, including commanders. Some of these commanders returned and were captured again, to be sent home again. The exceptions were commanders who were too afraid of being executed in Ethiopia and remained as civilians in Tigrayan villages.

Tigrayans are now called to apply Christian principles to their new national life. Tigray is called to be a kind of Switzerland in Africa: small, mountainous, independent, determined not to be involved in war, self-consciously Christian, moral, known for straight, honest, dealing, and thereby prosperous. Tigray will also develop a strong cultural, artistic, life. They will influence by example, not by force.

The Tigrayan victory has not only stunned Ethiopia, but Eritrea too. The new Tigrayan National State has declared their intention to make sure that Eritrea is never able to devastate their country again. They see the Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki, as responsible and will not tolerate his brutal dictatorship continuing. Some people think this will take 2 months, some 2 weeks.

Eritrea will soon be rid of their dictator. There will be dancing in the streets of Asmara as there has been dancing in the streets of Mekelle. Welcome also to the New Eritrea! May that country be built on a better, more humane, more lasting, foundation.

Roger Harper